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neonvincentLast article ever published by me on Examiner.com.
Poll shows Clinton leading Trump by seventeen points in Michigan
A poll of Michigan and six other battleground states released Wednesday, June 29, shows presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in Michigan and six other states. The poll, commissioned by Ballotpedia and conducted by Evolving Strategies, showed Clinton leading Trump in a two-way race by seventeen points in the Great Lakes State, the largest margin in the seven states surveyed.
Evolving Strategies also asked about voters' preferences in a three-way contest including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson. Clinton maintained her seventeen-point lead over Trump in Michigan and also had a thirty-seven point lead over Johnson.
Nate Silver, who released his initial forecast for the presidential election on Wednesday, wrote at FiveThirtyEight.com, "Evolving Strategies published a set of polls in swing states showing Clinton leading Trump by 10 percentage points, on average. If there are more numbers like those, the model will adjust accordingly."
In a two-way contest, the poll reported fifty percent of those surveyed in Michigan supported Clinton, while thirty-three percent favored Trump with sixteen percent preferring neither of them and one percent refusing to answer. In a three-way race, Clinton's support dropped to forty-seven percent and Trump's to thirty percent, while Johnson earned fourteen percent. Eight percent favored none of the three while two percent refused to answer.
The poll also surveyed voters in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Clinton's lead over Trump in a two-way contest averaged eleven percent, ranging from four percent in Iowa to fifteen points in Florida. In a three-way race including Johnson, Clinton's average lead shrank slightly to three percent with the lowest spread in Iowa at three percent and the highest in Pennsylvania at fifteen percent.
Silver included the poll in his presidential election forecast. As a result, he found that Clinton has an eighty percent chance of winning the election and a nearly ninety-one percent chance of winning Michigan. Trump had just over nine percent, while Johnson had a two-tenths of a percent chance of winning the state. Silver projected that Clinton would get about fifty percent of the vote in the state, Trump thirty-eight percent, and Johnson nearly eleven percent.
Evolving Strategies also tested two other Republican candidates, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Ohio Governor John Kasich, against Clinton and Johnson. Both have been mentioned as possible choices if Trump fails to be nominated at the Republican Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.
Ryan would beat Clinton in a two-way race in three of the seven battleground states, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia, but would lose Michigan by six percent, thirty-nine percent to Clinton's forty-five percent. In a three-way contest including Johnson, Ryan would lose by a margin of nine percent in Michigan, tie Clinton in Virginia, and win Iowa and Ohio by smaller margins.
In contrast, Kasich would beat Clinton in five of the battleground states in a two-way contest, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, with the narrowest lead of one percent in Michigan, forty-two percent to forty-one percent. With Johnson among the choices, would only win two battleground states, Iowa and Ohio. He would lose Michigan by four percent.
John Weaver, chief strategist for Kasich's suspended presidential campaign, reacted to the poll results in an email quoted by the Columbus Dispatch. "The buried news-lede, though, was the ballot tests: Speaker Paul Ryan and Governor Kasich against Clinton. They confirm what we said throughout the campaign: John Kasich was the very best candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton. On average, Governor Kasich defeated Clinton by 4 points in the 7 key swing states. Speaker Ryan tied her." In the email, Weaver continued, "This data is just further proof that Gov. Kasich is the most popular Republican politician in the nation today, and it underlines why his efforts to help our U.S. Senate and House candidates are so very important."
That was the last article I ever published for Examiner.com, but not the last I wrote. That honor goes to Examiner.com article on Clinton leading Trump by 17% in Michigan published at Crazy Eddies Motie News. In the middle of writing it, I received an email stating that Examiner.com was ceasing publication, effective immediately. The publisher was not kidding; I could not publish my article, so it went on my blog. Sic transit gloria mundi.
I'll post something non-political tomorrow. I have lots of science fiction in visual media to write about.
Poll shows Clinton leading Trump by seventeen points in Michigan
A poll of Michigan and six other battleground states released Wednesday, June 29, shows presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton leading presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump in Michigan and six other states. The poll, commissioned by Ballotpedia and conducted by Evolving Strategies, showed Clinton leading Trump in a two-way race by seventeen points in the Great Lakes State, the largest margin in the seven states surveyed.
Evolving Strategies also asked about voters' preferences in a three-way contest including Libertarian nominee Gary Johnson. Clinton maintained her seventeen-point lead over Trump in Michigan and also had a thirty-seven point lead over Johnson.
Nate Silver, who released his initial forecast for the presidential election on Wednesday, wrote at FiveThirtyEight.com, "Evolving Strategies published a set of polls in swing states showing Clinton leading Trump by 10 percentage points, on average. If there are more numbers like those, the model will adjust accordingly."
In a two-way contest, the poll reported fifty percent of those surveyed in Michigan supported Clinton, while thirty-three percent favored Trump with sixteen percent preferring neither of them and one percent refusing to answer. In a three-way race, Clinton's support dropped to forty-seven percent and Trump's to thirty percent, while Johnson earned fourteen percent. Eight percent favored none of the three while two percent refused to answer.
The poll also surveyed voters in Florida, Iowa, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia. Clinton's lead over Trump in a two-way contest averaged eleven percent, ranging from four percent in Iowa to fifteen points in Florida. In a three-way race including Johnson, Clinton's average lead shrank slightly to three percent with the lowest spread in Iowa at three percent and the highest in Pennsylvania at fifteen percent.
Silver included the poll in his presidential election forecast. As a result, he found that Clinton has an eighty percent chance of winning the election and a nearly ninety-one percent chance of winning Michigan. Trump had just over nine percent, while Johnson had a two-tenths of a percent chance of winning the state. Silver projected that Clinton would get about fifty percent of the vote in the state, Trump thirty-eight percent, and Johnson nearly eleven percent.
Evolving Strategies also tested two other Republican candidates, Speaker of the House Paul Ryan and Ohio Governor John Kasich, against Clinton and Johnson. Both have been mentioned as possible choices if Trump fails to be nominated at the Republican Convention in Cleveland, Ohio.
Ryan would beat Clinton in a two-way race in three of the seven battleground states, Iowa, Ohio, and Virginia, but would lose Michigan by six percent, thirty-nine percent to Clinton's forty-five percent. In a three-way contest including Johnson, Ryan would lose by a margin of nine percent in Michigan, tie Clinton in Virginia, and win Iowa and Ohio by smaller margins.
In contrast, Kasich would beat Clinton in five of the battleground states in a two-way contest, Iowa, Michigan, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Virginia, with the narrowest lead of one percent in Michigan, forty-two percent to forty-one percent. With Johnson among the choices, would only win two battleground states, Iowa and Ohio. He would lose Michigan by four percent.
John Weaver, chief strategist for Kasich's suspended presidential campaign, reacted to the poll results in an email quoted by the Columbus Dispatch. "The buried news-lede, though, was the ballot tests: Speaker Paul Ryan and Governor Kasich against Clinton. They confirm what we said throughout the campaign: John Kasich was the very best candidate to defeat Hillary Clinton. On average, Governor Kasich defeated Clinton by 4 points in the 7 key swing states. Speaker Ryan tied her." In the email, Weaver continued, "This data is just further proof that Gov. Kasich is the most popular Republican politician in the nation today, and it underlines why his efforts to help our U.S. Senate and House candidates are so very important."
That was the last article I ever published for Examiner.com, but not the last I wrote. That honor goes to Examiner.com article on Clinton leading Trump by 17% in Michigan published at Crazy Eddies Motie News. In the middle of writing it, I received an email stating that Examiner.com was ceasing publication, effective immediately. The publisher was not kidding; I could not publish my article, so it went on my blog. Sic transit gloria mundi.
I'll post something non-political tomorrow. I have lots of science fiction in visual media to write about.
