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neonvincentI was going for the contrary story by publishing an outlier poll.
Most recently conducted poll shows Kasich ahead of Trump in Michigan
The first poll conducted entirely after the Fox News debate in Detroit showed New York real estate developer Donald Trump no longer leading in Michigan. Instead, Ohio Governor John Kasich had gained a narrow lead in the race for the Republican nomination for President in the Great Lakes State.
The Columbus Dispatch reported the results of an American Research Group poll that surveyed 400 likely Republican voters on March 4 and March 5. It found Kasich the most popular choice with thirty-three percent, Trump in second with thirty-one percent, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in third with fifteen percent, and Marco Rubio of Florida in last with twelve percent. It was the first survey of Michigan voters after both the debate and the Detroit News endorsement of Kasich for the March 8 Michigan Republican Presidential primary, both of which occurred on March 3.
FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver told readers in his live reporting of Saturday's primary returns that they should be skeptical of these findings. He wrote that American Research Group was "not a highly-rated pollster," ranking near the bottom of his site's rankings. They "sometimes post results that are way different from the pack," making them "interesting more often than they’re accurate."
In particular, Silver thought that American Research Group published results six percent more favorable to Kasich than other pollsters taken in the same state at the same time, calling it a "house effect." In addition, other recent polls of Michigan still showed Trump firmly in the lead.
These polls include a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted March 2 through March 4, making it the only other poll to survey Michigan voters after the debate and newspaper endorsement. It found Trump comfortably in the lead with thirty-nine percent, Cruz second at twenty-four percent, Rubio in third with sixteen percent, and Kasich nipping at Rubio's heels at fifteen percent.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll conducted March 1 through March 3 and published Sunday, March 6, reported similar results. It had Trump first at forty-one percent, Cruz second at twenty-two percent, Rubio third with seventeen percent, and Kasich well behind at thirteen percent, a projected order of finish consistent with other polls taken immediately before the debate.
Still, Silver found hope for Kasich in Michigan. After correcting for poll quality and averaging the most recent polls, he calculated that Kasich's poll average had jumped from 10.2 percent on March 2 to 19.4 percent on March 5. "That’s good for second place, but it’s still well behind Trump’s 35.9 percent," Silver observed.
"Of course, it’s definitely possible that Trump’s numbers are declining based on the debate and other events of recent days. That would give Kasich, Cruz and Rubio a better chance to pick up wins down the road," he concluded.
Most recently conducted poll shows Kasich ahead of Trump in Michigan
The first poll conducted entirely after the Fox News debate in Detroit showed New York real estate developer Donald Trump no longer leading in Michigan. Instead, Ohio Governor John Kasich had gained a narrow lead in the race for the Republican nomination for President in the Great Lakes State.
The Columbus Dispatch reported the results of an American Research Group poll that surveyed 400 likely Republican voters on March 4 and March 5. It found Kasich the most popular choice with thirty-three percent, Trump in second with thirty-one percent, Senator Ted Cruz of Texas in third with fifteen percent, and Marco Rubio of Florida in last with twelve percent. It was the first survey of Michigan voters after both the debate and the Detroit News endorsement of Kasich for the March 8 Michigan Republican Presidential primary, both of which occurred on March 3.
FiveThirtyEight Editor-in-Chief Nate Silver told readers in his live reporting of Saturday's primary returns that they should be skeptical of these findings. He wrote that American Research Group was "not a highly-rated pollster," ranking near the bottom of his site's rankings. They "sometimes post results that are way different from the pack," making them "interesting more often than they’re accurate."
In particular, Silver thought that American Research Group published results six percent more favorable to Kasich than other pollsters taken in the same state at the same time, calling it a "house effect." In addition, other recent polls of Michigan still showed Trump firmly in the lead.
These polls include a CBS News/YouGov poll conducted March 2 through March 4, making it the only other poll to survey Michigan voters after the debate and newspaper endorsement. It found Trump comfortably in the lead with thirty-nine percent, Cruz second at twenty-four percent, Rubio in third with sixteen percent, and Kasich nipping at Rubio's heels at fifteen percent.
The NBC News/Wall Street Journal/Marist poll conducted March 1 through March 3 and published Sunday, March 6, reported similar results. It had Trump first at forty-one percent, Cruz second at twenty-two percent, Rubio third with seventeen percent, and Kasich well behind at thirteen percent, a projected order of finish consistent with other polls taken immediately before the debate.
Still, Silver found hope for Kasich in Michigan. After correcting for poll quality and averaging the most recent polls, he calculated that Kasich's poll average had jumped from 10.2 percent on March 2 to 19.4 percent on March 5. "That’s good for second place, but it’s still well behind Trump’s 35.9 percent," Silver observed.
"Of course, it’s definitely possible that Trump’s numbers are declining based on the debate and other events of recent days. That would give Kasich, Cruz and Rubio a better chance to pick up wins down the road," he concluded.
