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Rubio falls out of second in Michigan behind Cruz with Kasich gaining

While New York real estate developer Donald Trump still leads in Michigan, the race for second place continues to develop. Two polls taken after Super Tuesday show that Senator Marco Rubio of Florida has fallen out of second place and is being passed by Senator Ted Cruz of Texas and Governor John Kasich of Ohio, as Evangelicals and the youngest voters move from Rubio to Cruz, middle-aged voter shift from Rubio to Trump, and older voters change from Rubio to Kasich and Trump.

A poll of 1643 likely Republican primary voters by the Trafalgar Group conducted on March 2 and March 3 and released overnight between March 3 and March 4 found Trump leading with 41.87 percent, Cruz second at 20.45 percent, Kasich third with 18.14 percent, and Rubio fourth at 13.79 percent with 5.75 percent undecided. A Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll of 543 likely voters taken March 2 and released March 3 reported similar findings with the main difference being Rubio in third, ahead of Kasich by only one percent.

“There were several changes resulting from Super Tuesday including a small bump up in Trump's support (42%) and a big change in the second spot as Cruz (19%) and Rubio (15%) changed places and percentages. Cruz moved up 5% and Rubio dropped 4%. Kasich (14%) moved up 2% and was also helped by the awareness that Carson was not debating and that he ‘could not see a path forward’ for his campaign,” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said in a press release, comparing the results to the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll taken on March 1, a day earlier. “It appears that Trump’s more conciliatory style in his Tuesday night press conference, Cruz’s four victories, and Rubio’s failure to meet expectations have changed the race.”

Only one previous poll of Michigan voters had shown Kasich ahead of either Cruz or Rubio. An American Research Group survey of 400 likely voters taken February 19 and February 20 reported Kasich in second place with seventeen percent. Trump led with thirty-five percent while Rubio and Cruz were tied for third at twelve percent each.

One reason for the changing fortunes of Cruz and Rubio in Michigan was their relative performances among Evangelical voters. The Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll found that Rubio fell overnight from twenty percent support among this group to twelve percent. In contrast, Cruz now leads with Evangelicals at thirty-one percent to Trump's thirty percent.

Another source of trouble for Rubio is his loss of support among older voters as they line up behind Kasich and Cruz. A comparison of the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit polls taken before and after Super Tuesday's results became known show the percentage of respondents aged sixty to sixty-nine favoring Rubio fell eleven points overnight from twenty-two percent to eleven percent, while Kasich's support increased from fifteen percent to sixteen percent and Cruz's nearly doubled from eleven percent to twenty percent. Among likely voters over seventy, Rubio's support dropped less dramatically from fifteen percent to fourteen percent, but Kasich's rose rapidly from thirteen percent to sixteen percent while those saying they would vote for Cruz crashed from thirteen percent to ten percent.

The other surveys reporting strong showings for Kasich also reported strength among seniors. Kasich had the greatest support among voters aged 62 and over in the Trafalgar Group poll with twenty percent, placing him second behind Trump with forty-five percent. In the American Reseach Group poll, Kasich fared best with those over fifty, earning eighteen percent, second to Trump's thirty-four percent.

In contrast, Cruz is gaining strength among the youngest voters. His share of voters eighteen to thirty-nine in the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll rose from eighteen percent to thirty-seven percent while Rubio's fell from twenty-one percent to fifteen percent. The younger voters also formed Cruz's strongest age segment in the Trafalgar Group poll with thirty-one percent support among those aged twenty-six to thirty-five.

Trump also bled support among younger voters, dropping from forty-five percent to thirty-five overnight in the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll. This moved Cruz into first place with this demographic. Trump made up for it by increasing his share of middle-aged and older voters, with the greatest increases happening among those forty to forty-nine, jumping twelve points from twenty-eight percent to forty percent and those over seventy, rising six points from forty to forty-six percent.

“Trump continues to hold a strong lead in Michigan,” Mitchell concluded. “Cruz has clearly replaced Rubio in second place, but it is still hard to see him overtaking Trump in Michigan.”