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neonvincentThe first of many 2016 articles about polls.
Two polls show Trump and Clinton leading in Michigan
On the eve of the first in the nation New Hampshire Primary, two polls of Michigan primary voters show New York real estate magnate Donald Trump leading the Republican candidates and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas trail Trump in both polls.
On Monday, February 8, Fox 2 Detroit published the results of a Mitchell Research and Communications poll of 330 likely Republican primary voters and 321 likely Democratic primary voters. The Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll found that Trump had a two to one lead over Rubio and Cruz, with Trump at forty-one percent and Rubio at twenty percent and Cruz at sixteen percent.
“Trump is leading by a wide margin over his fellow candidates in all demographics, while Rubio has overtaken Cruz to jump into second place. Trump is especially strong with voters 50 or older (43%) and with men (47%),” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said in a press release.
Although Trump led in all regions of the state among both sexes and all age groups, his lead was strongest in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, where he received fifty-one percent support. Rubio did best in Washtenaw County, Monroe County, and Mid-Michigan, where he received thirty percent, a strong second place compared to Trump's forty percent and Cruz's ten percent. Cruz performed best in west Michigan, where he came in second with twenty-three percent to Trump's thirty-five percent and ahead of Rubio's twenty percent.
Among the rest of the Republican field, Detroit native neurosurgeon Ben Carson had the support of nine percent of the respondents with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and current New Jersey Governor Chris Christie tied at two percent. Neither Ohio Governor John Kasich nor former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina registered in the poll.
In the Democratic nomination contest, the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll found Clinton leading Sanders two to one as well. She had 57 percent support with Sanders trailing at 28 percent.
Those results mirrored those of the Inside Michigan Politics/Target Insight poll released Friday, February 5. That survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters found Clinton ahead with sixty-two percent to thirty percent for Sanders with seven percent undecided, also a two to one lead.
“Women of all ages in Michigan are standing behind Clinton right now,” Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght, said in a press release. “Sanders has a major hill to climb by March 8th. He didn't get an Iowa bounce.”
Susan J. Demas, Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, mirrored Sarpolus's sentiments. “Michigan Democrats don’t seem impressed that Sanders defied expectations and almost tied Clinton in Iowa,” Demas said in a press release. “Even if he scores big in the New Hampshire primary next week, as expected, Michigan still looks to be tough sledding. And 76% of Clinton’s voters here already say they’re committed, while only 53% of Sanders voters do.”
The Inside Michigan Politics/Target Insyght poll also surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters and found similar results to the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll. Trump was at thirty-five percent, while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tied at twenty-one percent each. John Kasich had six percent, Ben Carson received five percent, and Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina all tied at three percent with four percent undecided.
“Rumors of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated,” said Demas in a press release. “As much as people hoped he would fade away after his disappointing second-place finish in Iowa, Trump still holds a double-digit lead in Michigan over his nearest rivals, Cruz and Rubio. Although there’s about a month before the March 8 primary, the Republican establishment has to be concerned that Trump has the most committed voters of any candidate, with 77%.”
Sarpolus seemed upbeat about Rubio. “Pundits may joke about Rubio's style, but maybe his fancy boots have caught the attention of women voters and young voters, because he’s doing very well with them in Michigan," he said in a press release. "He’s new and not old establishment to them.”
Mitchell sounded less sanguine about the Senator from Florida. “Rubio was riding on a crest of positive press from his strong Iowa showing," he said in a press release. "However, his debate performance Saturday night may hurt him in New Hampshire, allowing some of the governors like Kasich, Bush, or Christie to move up."
As for Trump, he seemed more confident. "What happens in New Hampshire will impact Michigan, just as Iowa did. Trump has a strong lead in Michigan and New Hampshire and if he wins in the Granite State, he will likely stay on top here,” Mitchell concluded.
On the eve of the first in the nation New Hampshire Primary, two polls of Michigan primary voters show New York real estate magnate Donald Trump leading the Republican candidates and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton leading Senator Bernie Sanders of Vermont. Senators Marco Rubio of Florida and Ted Cruz of Texas trail Trump in both polls.
On Monday, February 8, Fox 2 Detroit published the results of a Mitchell Research and Communications poll of 330 likely Republican primary voters and 321 likely Democratic primary voters. The Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll found that Trump had a two to one lead over Rubio and Cruz, with Trump at forty-one percent and Rubio at twenty percent and Cruz at sixteen percent.
“Trump is leading by a wide margin over his fellow candidates in all demographics, while Rubio has overtaken Cruz to jump into second place. Trump is especially strong with voters 50 or older (43%) and with men (47%),” Steve Mitchell, CEO of Mitchell Research & Communications said in a press release.
Although Trump led in all regions of the state among both sexes and all age groups, his lead was strongest in northern Michigan and the Upper Peninsula, where he received fifty-one percent support. Rubio did best in Washtenaw County, Monroe County, and Mid-Michigan, where he received thirty percent, a strong second place compared to Trump's forty percent and Cruz's ten percent. Cruz performed best in west Michigan, where he came in second with twenty-three percent to Trump's thirty-five percent and ahead of Rubio's twenty percent.
Among the rest of the Republican field, Detroit native neurosurgeon Ben Carson had the support of nine percent of the respondents with former Florida Governor Jeb Bush and current New Jersey Governor Chris Christie tied at two percent. Neither Ohio Governor John Kasich nor former Hewlett-Packard executive Carly Fiorina registered in the poll.
In the Democratic nomination contest, the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll found Clinton leading Sanders two to one as well. She had 57 percent support with Sanders trailing at 28 percent.
Those results mirrored those of the Inside Michigan Politics/Target Insight poll released Friday, February 5. That survey of 400 likely Democratic primary voters found Clinton ahead with sixty-two percent to thirty percent for Sanders with seven percent undecided, also a two to one lead.
“Women of all ages in Michigan are standing behind Clinton right now,” Ed Sarpolus, Executive Director of Target Insyght, said in a press release. “Sanders has a major hill to climb by March 8th. He didn't get an Iowa bounce.”
Susan J. Demas, Publisher and Editor of Inside Michigan Politics, mirrored Sarpolus's sentiments. “Michigan Democrats don’t seem impressed that Sanders defied expectations and almost tied Clinton in Iowa,” Demas said in a press release. “Even if he scores big in the New Hampshire primary next week, as expected, Michigan still looks to be tough sledding. And 76% of Clinton’s voters here already say they’re committed, while only 53% of Sanders voters do.”
The Inside Michigan Politics/Target Insyght poll also surveyed 400 likely Republican primary voters and found similar results to the Mitchell/Fox 2 Detroit poll. Trump was at thirty-five percent, while Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio tied at twenty-one percent each. John Kasich had six percent, Ben Carson received five percent, and Jeb Bush, Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina all tied at three percent with four percent undecided.
“Rumors of Trump’s demise have been greatly exaggerated,” said Demas in a press release. “As much as people hoped he would fade away after his disappointing second-place finish in Iowa, Trump still holds a double-digit lead in Michigan over his nearest rivals, Cruz and Rubio. Although there’s about a month before the March 8 primary, the Republican establishment has to be concerned that Trump has the most committed voters of any candidate, with 77%.”
Sarpolus seemed upbeat about Rubio. “Pundits may joke about Rubio's style, but maybe his fancy boots have caught the attention of women voters and young voters, because he’s doing very well with them in Michigan," he said in a press release. "He’s new and not old establishment to them.”
Mitchell sounded less sanguine about the Senator from Florida. “Rubio was riding on a crest of positive press from his strong Iowa showing," he said in a press release. "However, his debate performance Saturday night may hurt him in New Hampshire, allowing some of the governors like Kasich, Bush, or Christie to move up."
As for Trump, he seemed more confident. "What happens in New Hampshire will impact Michigan, just as Iowa did. Trump has a strong lead in Michigan and New Hampshire and if he wins in the Granite State, he will likely stay on top here,” Mitchell concluded.
