neonvincent

Michigan's Proposal 1 trailing by huge margin in final poll before election

A poll released Friday evening showed that opponents of Proposal 1, which would increase the sales tax by one percent to fund improvements to the state's roads and trigger ten other laws if passed, still outnumber proponents among likely voters in Tuesday's election by more than two to one. The survey of 600 likely voters conducted by EPIC-MRA found that sixty-one percent of those responding said they would vote against the measure, in contrast to only twenty-nine percent saying they would vote in favor. Those indicating they would vote no increased to sixty-four percent when the language of the ballot measure was read to them.

The implications of the poll on the prosposal's prospects were summed up by EPIC-MRA President Bernie Porn, who was quoted by the Detroit Free Press as saying "The proposal is obviously on life support--there's no other way of saying it." Porn was quoted by MLive as saying of the measure's backers "They have a very high hill to climb, and they have a very short time in which to do it."

The top four reasons those indicating a vote of no gave were that there was too much in the proposal (31%), they were against the tax increase because taxes were too high already (22%), they thought it would be wasteful government spending (13%), and they distrusted Michigan's government, including Governor Rick Snyder (11%). A majority (53%) of those favoring the proposal said that roads needed repair. Other reasons included education funding (16%), funding needed in general (6%), and roads, schools, and the rest of state government needed funding (4%).

Porn addressed the confusing nature of the proposal. "People are confused; they think there's too much in it," he said to the Free Press. "It would be easier to talk someone down on how to land an Airbus than to talk to people about what's involved in Proposal 1."

MLive also quoted Governor Snyder, who has been campaigning in support of the measure. "Polling on ballot proposals is, first, very difficult," Snyder said. "The second thing is, you do have a challenge. We're asking for a tax increase, but it's an investment in Michigan's future, on something that's about the safety of our roads and a number of important issues."

Despite his stumping for an unpopular measure, Snyder's popularity appeared unaffected, as the EPIC-MRA poll showed. Of those surveyed, forty-eight percent had a favorable opinion of Michigan's Governor, while thirty-six pecent had a favorable opinion of him. In addition, fifty-two percent thought he was doing a good job as Governor, while forty-seven percent felt he was doing a poor or only fair job.

In contrast, Michigan's legislature, which voted to put the proposal on the ballot, fared much less well. Sixty-seven percent thought the legislature was doing a poor job, while only twenty-seven percent thought its members were doing a good job. While those numbers reflect a number of actions Michigan's House and Senate took, their performance on Proposal 1 may have something to do with it, as Porn noted in a quote carried by MLive. "I think it's clear that while the Legislature thought they put together a good policy, that doesn't mean that that complicated policy can be explained and conveyed to voters," said Porn.

Although Democratic legislators generally favored the proposal while Republicans generally opposed it, a fair number of Democratic voters said they would vote no. Democrats composed forty percent of the sample, while Republicans made up thirty-eight percent and independents and supporters of other parties filled out the rest at twenty-two percent. That means that even if all those responding no were Republicans and independents and all those indicating a yes vote were Democrats, an unlikely possibility, a significant fraction of the Democrats polled would still be voting no.

I forgot to mention that I had a fun title for the previous elections examiner article over at Crazy Eddie's Motie News: Partisan divisions over Proposal 1 plus a visit from Freewheeling Franklin Freak. Yes, I was into the Fabulous Furry Freak Brothers back in the day.