neonvincent

My response to Ground Control to Captain Zhou Xiaochuan

"The fourth and perhaps ultimate financial crisis of the last twenty years begins to express itself in terms that only the raptors and vultures can see from on high. George Soros, Kyle Bass, and the other flocking shadow banking scavengers prepare to short the living shit out of the old Middle Kingdom."

It's not just them. In response to the situation, JPMorgan Asset Management CEO Mary Callahan Erdoes reassured a panel last month that that slowing growth in China and falling oil prices “are not going to cause some kind of global disruption or recession.” Yeah, just keep saying that while oil prices are the lowest in 13 years and gas is cheaper than it's been since 2009. Even Krugman is acknowledging that oil prices falling too far, too fast will cause problems. He called it "oil goes nonlinear."

Speaking of financial crises, the biggest film about the last one, "The Big Short," is now the favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars, placing it ahead of "Spotlight." The news media, other than the comedians, may not be telling the truth about the present and future, but the entertainment media is at least telling the truth about the recent past. May we have the ability after the coming crash to be able to do so about the current situation in a decade.

FishOutOfWater is one of Daily Kos's best climate diarists and well worth reading. However, that report is from nearly two years ago, which is probably why the Doomsday Clock remained at 11:57 when it was revisited last week, despite 2015 being the warmest year on record. That's a real problem, but that merited hardly even one news cycle. In contrast, the Flint water crisis has been making national headlines for weeks now. That's also a real problem, but it's one on a human scale with villains and scapegoats who are people that many Americans don't like and solutions that appear achievable, not something in which all of us are complicit and solutions that people don't want to acknowledge.

My comment on Whatever Happened to Peak Oil?

It's tough to talk about peak oil when oil prices are the lowest in 13 years and gas is cheaper than it's been since 2009. Even Paul Krugman is acknowledging that oil prices falling too far, too fast will cause problems. He called it "oil goes nonlinear." Speaking of Krugman, he is still pushing the idea that we are on the verge of a renewables revolution. He really believes that we can produce electricity in a way that will allow us to continue on as we are now without interruption, just more cleanly and efficiently. He also thinks that this renewables revolution will help stave off the worst effects of climate change. Never mind that the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists are not convinced and kept their Doomsday Clock at 11:57. They seem appropriately alarmed at the situation.

Speaking of boom and bust cycles, the last one that played out in real estate inspired "The Big Short," which is now the favorite to win Best Picture at the Oscars, placing it ahead of "Spotlight." The news media, other than the comedians, may not be telling the truth about the present and future, but the entertainment media is at least telling the truth about the recent past.

My response to Notes from the Locked Ward.

My reaction to the Super Bowl was to suggest drinks so that viewers could forget all about the commercials. I turned off the game after halftime and only tuned in for the final four minutes. I don't think I missed anything.

I have an appropriate holiday answer to our host's question, "is there not some broad recognition that whoever occupies the White House in 2017 will preside over a financial debacle like unto nothing in scale that the world has ever seen before?" The answer is yes. Even the Chinese astrologers and feng shui practitioners recognize this. In a forecast for the Year of the Fire Monkey, a feng shui master predicted, "In 2016 we will see a big slide in the world economy. The global economic situation will be terrible and lots of companies will be bankrupted." Thank you, but we don't need astrology to tell us that.

On that note, I wish all of you Gong Xi Fa Cai/Kung Hei Fat Choi. If you wish to take that ironically, be my guest.

My response to Renewables: The Next Fracking?

Gong Xi Fa Cai/Kung Hei Fat Choi to you and your readers, as it is now the Year of the Fire Monkey! I looked at the list of links in your entry to see if you included the examples of Paul Krugman's renewables boosterism I shared last week. I didn't see them, but no matter, as last Thursday, Krugman posted again about a renewables revolution, this time boosting the signal for a Bloomberg article on the subject. Add that to your list of evidence in favor of your prediction about "the next big thing" coming true.

As for peak oil, it's still difficult to talk about it and be taken seriously when $1 gas is possible in the Midwest. We all know that it happened, but current conditions allow people like Fabius Maximus to dismiss the whole idea along with its proponents.

@Justin "What's in a Trump Sandwich?" I have no idea, but I can tell you six different recipes for Trump cocktails.

My comment on Repricing Reality.

"How hard is it to understand that A) that something adverse happens to oil companies when it costs them $70-a-barrel to hoist the product out of the ground and then sell it for $30-a-barrel? And B) that all of the infrastructure of techno-industrial civilization was designed to run on oil under $30-a-barrel and founders when the price goes higher?"

Upton Sinclair's famous line, “It is difficult to get a man to understand something, when his salary depends on his not understanding it,” applies here. None of the people you mentioned will take peak oil seriously because of that. Current conditions aren't helping when the news reports $1 gas is possible in the Midwest.

The American people may not understand peak oil either, but they know something is wrong. That manifested itself in the New Hampshire primary results, when Vermin Supreme got twice as many votes in the Democratic Primary than Jim Gilmore got in the Republican Primary. More people preferred the obvious joke candidate to the supposedly serious candidate who didn't know he was a joke.

My response to "Between the Loathsome and the Unspeakable"

“Hillary wins the black and Hispanic vote and a big majority of womens’ votes.” –JHK

The African-American vote looks to boost Hillary in the majority of the Democratic primaries coming up in the next two weeks. Polling shows that she is likely to win the majority of states between now and March 8th. Sanders has his home state of Vermont and neighboring Massachussetts locked up. He has a good but not great chances in Minnesota and Colorado. For some reason, he's going after Oklahoma. Beyond those states, he doesn't seem to have much of a chance, even in heavily Hispanic Texas.

As for my home state of Michigan, he's likely to lose that by double digits on the strength of the African-American vote, or so the polling says. That's despite Sanders being greeted by packed house in Ypsilanti last week. The college kids loved him!

At least we aren't going to be treated to a Bush-Clinton rematch, as Jeb! quit on Saturday. Everyone, please clap for Jeb Bush as he leaves the island.

My comment on The Decline and Fall of Hillary Clinton

"Bush had just realized, to his shock and horror, that the rules of the game had been changed on him without notice"--How appropriate that you mentioned "the rules of the game." When Jeb announced the suspension of his campaign in his concession speech, he alluded to the new rules by wishing "my competitors that are remaining on the island" well. Considering that he had been beaten, badly, by a former reality TV star, the "Survivor" reference was an apt summary of the new circumstances in which he found himself. Poor Jeb, please clap for him as he leaves the island after being voted off.

Speaking of "New Rules," the other Clinton surrogate to put her foot in her mouth was Gloria Steinem. On "Real Time with Bill Maher," she said that the young women who supported Bernie Sanders are just doing so because that's where the boys are. That made the generational divide between the supporters of Clinton and Sanders even more stark; it certainly didn't win any of them over.

Just the same, Clinton's strategy is working, at least in the primaries. While Sanders is winning the Internet, where the youth are, Clinton is winning the news media, which her supporters watch and read. The result is that Clinton is leading Sanders in Michigan.

Those same polls show Trump leading in Michigan among all demographic groups and in all parts of the state. The Republican leadership has just passed from denial to bargaining in response to Trump's success. Their endorsements are now pouring in for Rubio, but the people wagering money on the election aren't so sure. They're betting on Trump.

As a final comment on how topsy-turvey this election season has become, Vermin Supreme got twice as many votes in the New Hampshire Democratic Primary than Jim Gilmore got in the Republican Primary. More people preferred the obvious joke candidate to the supposedly serious candidate who didn't know he was a joke.